Close to-term iron ore costs to remain excessive however upside stays restricted: Macquarie - Earning Funda


Iron ore costs have recklessly rallied to a four-month excessive of round US$110 a tonne, opposite to the deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop and a steep downturn for international metal customers.

Singapore iron ore futures rallied nearly 50% from US$77.2 a tonne to US$112.4 between Monday, 31 October and Friday, 9 December.

Because the peak, costs are on a three-day dropping streak, down -3.1% to US$108 a tonne. However that is maybe an comprehensible pullback after such an outsized rally.

Singapore iron ore futures

Singapore iron ore futures (Supply: TradingView)

Is iron ore getting forward of itself?

Macquarie’s commodity technique staff not too long ago upgraded their near-term iron ore outlook, with the view that costs will common US$110 within the first quarter of 2023 (up from US$90) and US$114 for the total yr. Although, the analysts defined that the current worth rise was boosted by sentiment, not fundamentals.

“The benchmark iron-ore costs continued to rise reflecting bettering market sentiment regardless of the dearth of help from iron-ore demand and provide fundamentals,” the analysts stated in a notice on Tuesday.

“In China, metal obvious demand stabilised final week, however metal margins remained adverse for each built-in and EAF mills, and metal inventories edged greater.”

All issues thought-about, the analysts anticipate to see restricted worth upside within the close to time period.

Charts to observe

Chinese language rebar and scorching rolled coil margins have returned to optimistic territory. Since April, the return to profitability has been moderately short-lived.

Rebar and HRC margins

Supply: Macquarie Analysis

Macquarie forecasts a number of years of iron ore surpluses and doesn’t anticipate costs to return to 2021 highs anytime quickly.

Iron ore supply and demand outlook

Supply: Macquarie Analysis

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Supply: Macquarie Analysis | Desk: Market Index



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